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PETROLÜN KEŞFİNDEN SONRA ÇAD'DA DEĞİŞİM OLDU MU? ROLLING WINDOWS TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 9, 23.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.938982

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklık, son on yılda gözle görülür şekilde artmıştır. Kuşkusuz, dalgalanmanın ortaya çıkması, petrol ihraç ve ithal eden ekonomileri farklı şekilde etkilemektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar, petrol ihracatçısı ekonomilerde ekonomik göstergeleri olumlu etkilerken, düşüşler ekonomileri olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu bağlamda, dalgalanmadaki artışlar araştırmacıların dikkatini çekmiştir ve hem petrol ithal eden ve ihraç eden ülkelerin ekonomilerini hem de gelişmiş ve yükselen piyasa ekonomilerini araştıran geniş bir literatür bulunmuştur.

Çad Cumhuriyeti'nin ekonomisi, iki farklı ekonomik döneme sahip olmasından dolayı diğer ekonomilerden farklıdır; ilk dönemde, enerjiye bağımlı bir petrol ithalatı ekonomisi iken, İkinci dönem petrol çağı olarak adlandırılmaktadır; bu, 2003 yılında ülkede petrol rezervlerinin keşfedilmesiyle başlamıştır. Çad'ın kendine özgü durumu nedeniyle, petrol gelirlerinin ekonomiye fayda sağlayıp sağlamadığını veya Çad'ın durumunun "kaynak laneti" kapsamına girip girmediğini görmek için 1963'ten 2019'a kadar petrol fiyatları ile Çad'ın ekonomik büyüme performansı arasındaki etkileşimler incelenmektedir. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, petrol rezervleri keşfedilmeden önce petrol fiyatlarının Çad ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisi negatif iken, 2003'ten sonra etki pozitif olmuştur. Petrol fiyatının etkisi 2018'de tekrar negatif hale gelmiştir. Bu sonuç "kaynak laneti"nin bir işareti olabilir.

Kaynakça

  • Abakar, M. S. (2018). The effects of oil on economic development of Chad. Journal of International Trade, Logistics and Law, 4(1), 23–30.
  • Akalpler, E., & Nuhu, A. B. (2018). The impact of oil price instability on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria, business. Economics and Management Research Journal, 1(1), 39–53.
  • Aouzal, L. L. (2018). Impact de dynamique des cours de pétrole sur la croissance économique au Maroc. International Review of Economics, Management and Law Research, 1(1), 1–22.
  • APE Tchad- strictement confidentiel (2006). Etude d’impact, d’un accord de partenariat économique (APE) entre la Communauté Economique des Etas de l’Afrique Centrale el l’Union Européenne sur l’économie du Tchad, Rapport Final, Group ACP, Terta Stratégie & Conseil.
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., Bakü. & Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398–1410.
  • Bergmann, P. (2019). Oil price shocks and GDP growth: Do energy shares amplify causal effects? Energy Economics, 80, 1010–1040.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85–106.
  • Bruno, M., & Sachs, J. (1982). Input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth: The case of U.K. manufacturing. Review of Economic Statistics, 49(5), 679–705.
  • Campagne, B., Kitzmuller, M., & Tordo, S. (2020). Designing oil revenue management mechanisms: An application to Chad. Policy Research Working Paper 9402. World Bank Group.
  • Darby, R. M. (1982). The price of oil and world inflation and recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738–751.
  • Doudjidingao, A. (2017). Rapport d’analyse du contexte socioéconomique en vue de la mise en œuvre du projet au Tchad, Rapport national d’évaluation Mars, CNUCED.
  • Edelstein, P., & Kilian, L. (2009). How sensitive are consumer expenditure to retail energy price? Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 766–779.
  • Fititi, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F, & Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil price and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(1), 11–22.
  • Gadom, D. G., Kountchou, A. M., & Arar, A. (2018). The impact of oil revenues on well-being in Chad. Environment and Development Economics, 23, 591–613.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The interaction between oil price and economic growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13, 127–141.
  • Grigoli, F., Herman, A., & Swiston, A. (2019). A crude shock: Explaining the short-run impact of 2014-2016 oil price decline across exporters. Energy Economics, 78, 481–493.
  • Gylfason, T. (2000). Resources, agriculture, and economic growth in economies in transition, CESifo Working paper, No. 313. Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo). Munich.
  • Hakro, A. N., & Omezzine, A. M. (2016). Oil price effects on exchange rate, output and consumer price: A case study of small open economy of Oman. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 37(3), 1–28.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1988). A neoclassical model of unemployment and business cycle. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 593–617.
  • Herrera A. M., Mohammad B. K., & Sandeep, K. R., (2019). Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity. Energy Policy, 129, 89–99.
  • Hidayat, S. E., & Sakti, M. R. P. (2020). Oil prices and Islamic banks performance in the OIC countries: Evidence from the Dynamic GMM approaches. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(2), 113–140.
  • Hooker, A. M. (1996). What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195–213.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2015, October). Where are commodity exporters headed? Output growth in the aftermath of the commodity boom. World Economic Outlook (Ch. 2).
  • International Monetary Fund. (2020, April). Requests for disbursement under the rapid credit facility, extension of the extended credit facility arrangement, and rephasing of access CHAD. IMF Country Report No. 20/134.
  • Jarrett, U., Kamiar, M., & Hamid, M. (2019). Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 126, 131–144.
  • Jimenez R. R., & Sanchez, M. (2004). Oil price shocks and real GDP Growth: Empirical evidence from some OECD countries. Working paper series No. 362/ May. European Central Bank.
  • Kitzmuller, M., Matta, S., N., Kassim, O. M., Nyman, S., Koschorke, J. A., & Gebregziabher, F. H. (2018). Comment le Tchad peut-il sortir du labyrinthe de la croissance ? Démêler les contraintes des opportunités et trouver la voie d’une croissance durable. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
  • Maheu, J. M., Yong S., & Qiao ,Y. (2020). Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link. International Journal of Forecasting, 36, 570–587.
  • Mo B., Cuiqiong C., He N., & Yonghong, J. (2019). Visiting effects of crude oil price on economic growth in BRICS countries: Fresh evidence from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile. Energy, 178, 234–251.
  • Mork, A. K. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: An extension of Hamilton’s results. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740–744.
  • Narayan, P. K., Susan S., Wai, C. P., & Joakim, W. (2014). Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence. Energy Economics, 41, 137–146.
  • Ndoumtara, N. (2007). Boom pétrolier et risque d’un syndrome hollandais au Tchad : Une approche par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable (Doctoral dissertation). Université d’Auvergne Clermont – Ferrand I.
  • Olayungbo, D. O. (2019). Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse, Resource Policy, 64, 101469.
  • Rasche, H. R., & Tatom, J. A. (1977). Energy resources and potential GNP. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59(6), 10–24.

DID SOMETHING CHANGE IN CHAD AFTER THE OIL ERA? EVIDENCE FROM A ROLLING-WINDOWS ANALYSIS

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 9, 23.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.938982

Öz

The volatility of oil prices has increased visibly in the last decade. Undoubtedly, the occurrence of volatility affects the economics of oil exporting and importing differently. Increases in oil prices positively affect economic indicators in oil exporting economies, while decreases have negative effects. In this regard, increases in volatility have attracted researchers’ attention, and a vast literature is found investigating both the economics of oil importing and exporting countries as well as advanced and emerging market economies.
The Republic of Chad’s economy differs from other economies because of its two different economic eras; the first was an oil import economy, which is energy dependent. The second is its oil era; this started in 2003 when oil reserves were discovered in the country. Due to Chad’s unique situation, we have examined the interactions between oil prices and Chad’s economic growth performance from 1963 to 2019 to see if its oil revenues have benefitted the economy or whether Chad’s situation falls under the “resource curse.” The results show that, while oil prices had been negative before the discovery of oil reserves, positive oil prices occurred after 2003. These prices did become negative again in 2018, which might be a sign of the resource curse.

Kaynakça

  • Abakar, M. S. (2018). The effects of oil on economic development of Chad. Journal of International Trade, Logistics and Law, 4(1), 23–30.
  • Akalpler, E., & Nuhu, A. B. (2018). The impact of oil price instability on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria, business. Economics and Management Research Journal, 1(1), 39–53.
  • Aouzal, L. L. (2018). Impact de dynamique des cours de pétrole sur la croissance économique au Maroc. International Review of Economics, Management and Law Research, 1(1), 1–22.
  • APE Tchad- strictement confidentiel (2006). Etude d’impact, d’un accord de partenariat économique (APE) entre la Communauté Economique des Etas de l’Afrique Centrale el l’Union Européenne sur l’économie du Tchad, Rapport Final, Group ACP, Terta Stratégie & Conseil.
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., Bakü. & Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398–1410.
  • Bergmann, P. (2019). Oil price shocks and GDP growth: Do energy shares amplify causal effects? Energy Economics, 80, 1010–1040.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85–106.
  • Bruno, M., & Sachs, J. (1982). Input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth: The case of U.K. manufacturing. Review of Economic Statistics, 49(5), 679–705.
  • Campagne, B., Kitzmuller, M., & Tordo, S. (2020). Designing oil revenue management mechanisms: An application to Chad. Policy Research Working Paper 9402. World Bank Group.
  • Darby, R. M. (1982). The price of oil and world inflation and recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738–751.
  • Doudjidingao, A. (2017). Rapport d’analyse du contexte socioéconomique en vue de la mise en œuvre du projet au Tchad, Rapport national d’évaluation Mars, CNUCED.
  • Edelstein, P., & Kilian, L. (2009). How sensitive are consumer expenditure to retail energy price? Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 766–779.
  • Fititi, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F, & Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil price and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(1), 11–22.
  • Gadom, D. G., Kountchou, A. M., & Arar, A. (2018). The impact of oil revenues on well-being in Chad. Environment and Development Economics, 23, 591–613.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011). The interaction between oil price and economic growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13, 127–141.
  • Grigoli, F., Herman, A., & Swiston, A. (2019). A crude shock: Explaining the short-run impact of 2014-2016 oil price decline across exporters. Energy Economics, 78, 481–493.
  • Gylfason, T. (2000). Resources, agriculture, and economic growth in economies in transition, CESifo Working paper, No. 313. Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo). Munich.
  • Hakro, A. N., & Omezzine, A. M. (2016). Oil price effects on exchange rate, output and consumer price: A case study of small open economy of Oman. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 37(3), 1–28.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1988). A neoclassical model of unemployment and business cycle. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 593–617.
  • Herrera A. M., Mohammad B. K., & Sandeep, K. R., (2019). Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity. Energy Policy, 129, 89–99.
  • Hidayat, S. E., & Sakti, M. R. P. (2020). Oil prices and Islamic banks performance in the OIC countries: Evidence from the Dynamic GMM approaches. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(2), 113–140.
  • Hooker, A. M. (1996). What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195–213.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2015, October). Where are commodity exporters headed? Output growth in the aftermath of the commodity boom. World Economic Outlook (Ch. 2).
  • International Monetary Fund. (2020, April). Requests for disbursement under the rapid credit facility, extension of the extended credit facility arrangement, and rephasing of access CHAD. IMF Country Report No. 20/134.
  • Jarrett, U., Kamiar, M., & Hamid, M. (2019). Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 126, 131–144.
  • Jimenez R. R., & Sanchez, M. (2004). Oil price shocks and real GDP Growth: Empirical evidence from some OECD countries. Working paper series No. 362/ May. European Central Bank.
  • Kitzmuller, M., Matta, S., N., Kassim, O. M., Nyman, S., Koschorke, J. A., & Gebregziabher, F. H. (2018). Comment le Tchad peut-il sortir du labyrinthe de la croissance ? Démêler les contraintes des opportunités et trouver la voie d’une croissance durable. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
  • Maheu, J. M., Yong S., & Qiao ,Y. (2020). Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link. International Journal of Forecasting, 36, 570–587.
  • Mo B., Cuiqiong C., He N., & Yonghong, J. (2019). Visiting effects of crude oil price on economic growth in BRICS countries: Fresh evidence from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile. Energy, 178, 234–251.
  • Mork, A. K. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: An extension of Hamilton’s results. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740–744.
  • Narayan, P. K., Susan S., Wai, C. P., & Joakim, W. (2014). Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence. Energy Economics, 41, 137–146.
  • Ndoumtara, N. (2007). Boom pétrolier et risque d’un syndrome hollandais au Tchad : Une approche par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable (Doctoral dissertation). Université d’Auvergne Clermont – Ferrand I.
  • Olayungbo, D. O. (2019). Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse, Resource Policy, 64, 101469.
  • Rasche, H. R., & Tatom, J. A. (1977). Energy resources and potential GNP. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59(6), 10–24.
Toplam 34 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Selim Kayhan 0000-0002-4838-6892

Abdallatif Mahamat Yacoub 0000-0002-2896-2653

Yayımlanma Tarihi 23 Ağustos 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Kayhan, S., & Mahamat Yacoub, A. (2021). DID SOMETHING CHANGE IN CHAD AFTER THE OIL ERA? EVIDENCE FROM A ROLLING-WINDOWS ANALYSIS. Uluslararası Ticaret Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.938982